Thoughts on Iran
Once in a while you come across a blog that offers an oasis of calm and rationality in an ocean of hysteria. Using Google's blogsearch I stumbled on such a blog, presenting some very well defended and highly rational viewpoints on Iran and the nuclear issue. Let me provide a few samples.
In a post entitled "In the Shadow of Iraq" the author expands on the desirability and consequences of a US led military attack on Iran's nuclear installations:
The fiasco of the Iraq War will define the context within which an attack on Iran would occur. A military strike would be a replay of the run-up to the Iraq War: the United States presenting evidence to the United Nations of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, declaring the process ineffective, then launching a military assault. It won’t matter this time around whether or not the evidence is true or not; we’ve cried wolf and we have no credibility left. All of the suspicions raised by the Iraq War will be confirmed and amplified: that the United States is trying to establish global hegemony, control the world oil supply, and even subjugate Islam in a war of civilizations. The backlash from the Iraq War in the Middle East will be amplified too: regional chaos, the empowerment of fundamentalists, and a dramatic increase in terrorism. (more)
Perhaps there is one comment I'd like to add. Whilst US military superiority over Iran cannot be denied, do not forget that Iran isn't Iraq. Whatever the US will throw at them (assuming for one minute that military intervention was started), the Iranians will fight back with great determination, especially against their historical arch-nemesis.
They are also well equipped and have recently taken delivery of a state-of-the-art air defence system (THOR) which is probably being deployed right now.
And in the Iran/Iraq war the former proved that even against superior firepower, motivation and gritty determination can be highly effective.
The Iranians haven't forgotten the 1953 coup, US support of Iraq near the end of the Iran/Iraq war or the downing of IR 655, even though these may be distant memories in the American general public.
The author's post "Tehran's Rationality" is equally enlightening:
In the United States, much of the discussion about the current nuclear crisis with Iran has been distorted by the assumption that a nuclear Iran would present a security challenge different from anything we have previously faced. This is because the Islamic Republic has a fundamentalist religious government, widely assumed to be run by irrational extremists, motivated by the same suicidal fanaticism as the 9/11 hijackers.If only more Americans accepted this view over the simplistic "Nuke the Mad Mullahs" attitude...
But nations do not behave like cells of suicidal religious extremists. Governments, in general, are concerned with ensuring their own survival from internal and external threat. Internally, this means that a government is responsible for the survival and well-being of its people, and particularly for serving the interests of those people from whom they derive power. And in fact, Iran’s government is more responsive to the demands of its citizens than many in the Middle East. Despite the authoritarianism of its ruling religious establishment, it has a multi-layered government with several power centers including a partially democratic parliament; it also has a significant faction within the ruling elite seeking improved foreign relations, largely to reap the economic benefits and curb popular discontent. (more)
Keywords: Iran, NPT, nuclear, UN, Security Council